Universal access to electricity remains elusive, and scaling up access to clean cooking facilities is even more challenging. This preview presents options to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and bring CO2 emissions closer to net zero by mid-century, offering high-level insights on technology choices, investment needs and the socio-economic contexts of achieving a sustainable, resilient and inclusive energy future. Gas supply also becomes more diverse: the amount of liquefaction sites worldwide doubles to 2040, with the main additions coming from the United States and Australia, followed by Russia, Qatar, Mozambique and Canada. Meeting CO2 reduction targets by 2050 will require a combination of: technology and innovation to advance the energy transition and improve carbon management; supportive and proactive policies; associated job creation and socio-economic improvements; and international co-operation to guarantee energy availability and access. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks, Falling short on access, air pollution and GHGs. China remains a towering presence in coal markets, but our projections suggest that coal use peaked in 2013 and is set to decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040. In the absence of large-scale carbon capture and storage, global coal consumption flatlines. Your participation in such surveys shall be subject to any applicable terms and conditions as shall be communicated to you. Finally, WEO 2017 introduces a major new scenario – the Sustainable Development Scenario – that outlines an integrated approach to achieving internationally agreed objectives on climate change, air quality and universal access to modern energy. Articles. By providing this information, you agree that IRENA may contact you from time to time, including to provide you with surveys. Ensuring that gas remains affordable and secure, beyond the current period of ample supply and lower prices, is critical for its long-term prospects. A combination of technologies is needed to keep us on a 1.5°C climate pathway. Efficiency policies also play a part in constraining gas use: while the electricity generated from gas grows by more than half to 2040, related gas use rises by only one-third, due to more reliance on highly efficient plants. With destination flexibility, hub-based pricing and spot availability, US LNG acts as a catalyst for many of the anticipated changes in the wider gas market. Overall, developing countries in Asia account for two-thirds of global energy growth, with the rest coming mainly from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. A key finding is that universal access to electricity and clean cooking can be reached without making this task any more challenging. By the mid-2020s, the United States become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter and a few years later a net exporter of oil – still a major importer of heavier crudes that suit the configuration of its refineries, but a larger exporter of light crude and refined products. Rising incomes mean that many millions of households add electrical appliances (with an increasing share of “smart” connected devices) and install cooling systems. A remarkable ability to unlock new resources cost-effectively pushes combined United States oil and gas output to a level 50% higher than any other country has ever managed; already a net exporter of gas, the US becomes a net exporter of oil in the late 2020s. The direct use of renewables to provide heat and mobility worldwide also doubles, albeit from a low base. Extra policy and infrastructure support pushes a much more rapid expansion in the global electric car fleet, which approaches 900 million cars by 2040. This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand. This is an extract, full report available as PDF download. IEA (2017), World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2017, World Energy Outlook 2017: A world in transformation. LNG accounts for almost 90% of the projected growth in long-distance gas trade to 2040: with few exceptions, most notably the route that opens up between Russia and China, major new pipelines struggle in a world that prizes the optionality of LNG. March 2021. Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system set the scene for the World Energy Outlook 2017: the rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies, the growing electrification of energy, the shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, and the resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States. European Union Can Meet Ambitious Renewable Energy Targets, 12 January 2018 | It explains the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s energy systems, and describes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals while maintaining a strong focus on the reliability and affordability of energy for a growing global population. But stringent fuel-efficiency measures for cars and trucks, and a shift which sees one-in-four cars being electric by 2040, means that China is no longer the main driving force behind global oil use – demand growth is larger in India post-2025. Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE), which supplies turbines to the power sector, on Wednesday lowered the upper end of its target range for 2021 sales, hurt … These shifts come at a time when traditional distinctions between energy producers and consumers are being blurred and a new group of major developing countries, led by India, moves towards centre stage. China is entering a new phase in its development. Promising outlook for 2021 “The outlook for 2021 is promising in terms of market robustness. Progress in India and Indonesia has been particularly impressive, and in sub-Saharan Africa electrification efforts outpaced population growth for the first time in 2014. The new gas order can bring dividends for gas security, although there is the risk of a hard landing for gas markets in the 2020s if uncertainty over the pace or direction of change deters new investments. All Rights Reserved. A new gas order is emerging, with US LNG helping to accelerate a shift towards a more flexible, liquid, global market. Even greater upside for US tight oil and a more rapid switch to electric cars would keep oil prices lower for longer. In the United States, plentiful supplies maintain a strong share of gas-fired power in electricity generation through to 2040, even without national policies limiting the use of coal. The largest contribution to demand growth – almost 30% – comes from India, whose share of global energy use rises to 11% by 2040 (still well below its 18% share in the anticipated global population). Even with a rapid transformation of the passenger car fleet, reaching a peak in global demand would require stronger policy action in other sectors. The World Energy Trilemma Index is an annual measurement of national energy system performances across each of the three trilemma dimensions: Energy Security measures a nation’s capacity to meet current and future energy demand reliably, withstand and bounce back swiftly from system shocks with minimal disruption to supplies. Improvements in efficiency play a huge role in taking the strain off the supply side: without them, the projected rise in final energy use would more than double. A strengthening tide of industry initiatives and policy support pushes our projection for the global electric car fleet up to 280 million by 2040, from 2 million today. But 80% of the projected growth in gas demand takes place in developing economies, led by China, India and other countries in Asia, where much of the gas needs to be imported (and so transportation costs are significant) and infrastructure is often not yet in place. Compared with the past twenty-five years, the way that the world meets its growing energy needs changes dramatically in the New Policies Scenario, with the lead now taken by natural gas, by the rapid rise of renewables and by energy efficiency. These include increasingly efficient energy production to ensure economic growth; decarbonised power systems that are dominated by renewables; increased use of electricity in buildings, industry and transport to support decarbonisation; expanded production and use of green hydrogen, synthetic fuels and feedstocks; and targeted use of sustainably sourced biomass. Ageing populations in many industrialised societies become more vulnerable to the effects of air pollution and urbanisation can also increase exposure to pollutants from traffic. Natural gas grows to account for a quarter of global energy demand in the New Policies Scenario by 2040, becoming the second-largest fuel in the global mix after oil. This reflects the fact that gas looks a good fit for policy priorities in this region, generating heat, power and mobility with fewer carbon-dioxide (CO2) and pollutant emissions than other fossil fuels, helping to address widespread concerns over air quality. The outlook for nuclear power has dimmed since last year’s Outlook, but China continues to lead a gradual rise in output, overtaking the United States by 2030 to become the largest producer of nuclear-based electricity. * The designations employed and the presentation of materials herein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Renewable Energy Agency concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Industrial electric motor systems account for one-third of the increase in power demand in the New Policies Scenario. 18 World Energy Outlook 2020 The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the SDS analysis.A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by mid-century. In resource-rich regions, such as the Middle East, the case for expanding gas use is relatively straightforward, especially when it can substitute for oil. Considering the inter-linkages between them and aligning policy and market frameworks – notably in the residential sector – is essential to ensure cost-efficient outcomes. You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the bottom of any IEA newsletter. Expansion on this scale is having wide-ranging impacts within North America, fuelling major investments in petrochemicals and other energy-intensive industries. Energy efficiency regulation explains a large part of this slowdown. But the competitive landscape is formidable, not just due to coal but also to renewables, which in some countries become a cheaper form of new power generation than gas by the mid-2020s, pushing gas-fired plants towards a balancing rather than a baseload role. In India, the share of coal in the power mix drops from three-quarters in 2016 to less than half in 2040. © 2011-2020 IRENA - International Renewable Energy Agency. Following this preview and aligned with the UN High-Level Dialogue process, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) will release the full report which will provide a comprehensive vision and accompanying policy measures for the transition. This preview identifies opportunities to support informed policy and decision making to establish a new global energy system. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The president’s call for an “energy revolution”, the “fight against pollution” and the transition towards a more services-based economic model is moving the energy sector in a new direction - with the emphasis in energy policy now firmly on electricity, natural gas and cleaner, high-efficiency and digital technologies. The provision of highly efficient appliances, combined with decentralised renewables, also play a major role in extending full access to electricity and clean cooking, especially in rural communities and isolated settlements that are hard to reach with the grid. World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway (Preview). Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. Consumption of natural gas rises by nearly 20% to 2030 in the Sustainable Development Scenario and remains broadly at this level to 2040. In Brazil, the share of direct and indirect renewable use in final energy consumption rises from 39% today to 45% in 2040, compared with a global progression from 9% to 16% over the same period. Articles, Strong Cooperation and Enabling Policies can Lead Energy Transformation in Southeast Asia, 16 August 2020 | However, the speed of change in the power sector is not matched elsewhere: CO2 emissions from oil use in transport almost catch up with those from coal-fired power plants (which are flat) by 2040, and there is also a 20% rise in emissions from industry. A second focus, on natural gas, explores how the rise of shale gas and liquefied natural gas are changing the global gas market as well as the opportunities and risks for gas in the transition to a cleaner energy system. Growth in renewables is not confined to the power sector. IRENA will make its best efforts to protect the confidentiality of this information, although does not warrant the confidentiality or security of such information. Thank you for subscribing. All of these are achieved in the SDS, putting global emissions on track for net Despite their recent flattening, global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario. We estimate that, in 2040, it would take around ten days for major importing regions to raise their import levels by 10%, a week less than it might take today in Europe, Japan and Korea. In February 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 62 million barrels to end at 2.955 billion, 80 million barrels higher than a … Otherwise, in a lower oil price world, consumers have few economic incentives to make the switch away from oil or to use it more efficiently. Stepping up action to tackle methane leaks along the oil and gas value chain is essential to bolster the environmental case for gas: these emissions are not the only anthropogenic emissions of methane, but they are likely to be among the cheapest to abate. The contribution of gas varies widely across regions, between sectors and over time in this scenario. World Energy Outlook 2019 explores these widening fractures in detail. Nonetheless, by 2040 per-capita energy consumption in China exceeds that of the European Union. Policy attention to air quality is rising and global emissions of all the major pollutants fall in our projections, but their health impacts remain severe. However, it is not sufficient to trigger a major turnaround in global oil use. National social and economic policies will play fundamental roles in delivering the energy transition at the speed required to restrict global warming to 1.5°C. Renewable sources of energy meet 40% of the increase in primary demand and their explosive growth in the power sector marks the end of the boom years for coal. The increasing use of digital technologies across the economy improves efficiency and facilitates the flexible operation of power systems, but also creates potential new vulnerabilities that need to be addressed. How these developments play out and interact is the story of this year’s Outlook. The 2030 targets for renewables and efficiency that are defined in the Sustainable Development agenda are met or exceeded in this scenario; renewables and efficiency are the key mechanisms to drive forward the low-carbon transition and reduce pollutant emissions. The World Energy Transitions Outlook preview outlines a pathway for the world to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and halt the pace of climate change by transforming the global energy landscape. Powerful impetus from other sectors is enough to keep oil demand on a rising trajectory to 105 mb/d by 2040: oil use to produce petrochemicals is the largest source of growth, closely followed by rising consumption for trucks (fuel-efficiency policies cover 80% of global car sales today, but only 50% of global truck sales), for aviation and for shipping. ISBN : 978-92-9260-334-2: Download. The scale of future electricity needs and the challenge of decarbonising power supply help to explain why global investment in electricity overtook that of oil and gas for the first time in 2016 and why electricity security is moving firmly up the policy agenda. In our projections, the 8 mb/d rise in US tight oil output from 2010 to 2025 would match the highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of oil markets. The Sustainable Development Scenario offers an integrated way to achieve a range of energy-related goals crucial for sustainable economic development: climate stabilisation, cleaner air and universal access to modern energy, while also reducing energy security risks. These changes provide the backdrop for the World Energy Outlook 2017, which includes a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2040 based on different scenarios. Once US tight oil plateaus in the late 2020s and non-OPEC production as a whole falls back, the market becomes increasingly reliant on the Middle East to balance the market. Without new efficiency measures, end-use consumption in 2040 would be 40% higher. Electric cars move into the mainstream quickly, but decarbonising the transport sector also requires much more stringent efficiency measures across the board, notably for road freight. With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world’s consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil. In China, CO2 emissions are projected to plateau at 9.2 Gt (only slightly above current levels) by 2030 before starting to fall back. China’s choices will play a huge role in determining global trends, and could spark a faster clean energy transition. It is also reordering international trade flows and challenging incumbent suppliers and business models. There are some positive signs: over 100 million people per year have gained access to electricity since 2012 compared with around 60 million per year from 2000 to 2012. Policies continue to support renewable electricity worldwide, increasingly through competitive auctions rather than feed-in tariffs, and the transformation of the power sector is amplified by millions of households, communities and businesses investing directly in distributed solar PV. Since 2000, coal-fired power generation capacity has grown by nearly 900 gigawatts (GW), but net additions from today to 2040 are only 400 GW and many of these are plants already under construction. Large-scale shifts include the rapid deployment and steep declines in the costs of major renewable energy technologies; the growing importance of electricity in energy use across the globe; profound changes in the People’s Republic of China’s economy and energy policy, moving consumption away from coal; and the continued surge in shale gas and tight oil production in the United States. 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